Friday, May 23, 2008

Politicians and their recent (great) actions

Before commenting on anything like this first and foremost i know am not the right person to do so, as i hardly turnout everytime there is an election to go and vote. Part of the reason i might say is that i work in a different place and have a permanent residence in a different place. In simple words i think if my vote is going to make such a big difference??? Maybe also becuase i have largely got access to the basic needs thanks to great parents, their upbringing and partly to my own efforts (hey i have come through the great quota system in my home state despite 69%being reserved in quotas. yeah thats how low it is in my state ;-P ).

For the guy who does not have his basic needs satisfied the Government is answerable. However i felt it is answerable to me too considering i am paying more than a third of my income as various forms of taxes. And i am one among the 10-13% (i think this number is right) of the population which pays taxes. From the money they collect from me if they do not provide the requisite infrasctructure then thats pathetic. In essence there is no accountability.

However now to woo the votebank (the ones who diligently go and vote everytime. sometimes more than once in every given occasion ;-P ) the politicians stoop to pretty low levels.

Give free colour televisions (two states in India have done that now - my home state and the state where elections are currently on). On money collected from taxes . hey that i thought was for basic infrastructure!!! After rodi, kapda and makaan, now its tvs too ;-P

Industry busting - well when inflation has gone up because of oil and food in the country, levying a ban on cement price increases seems absurd. That too in a year when prices have gone up by only 4% yoy and when cost of the inputs have gone up higher. If Government is seriously concerned about cement prices then it should bring down indirect taxes. Instead they hiked it and being indirect it is passed on. Hey then thats a double whammy. In my opinion they should take a cue from a neghbouring state of my home state. That state is implementing a low cost housing scheme for which cement consumed is given at subsidised rates while for the general market at market determined rates. Thats logical - give cement at lower rates for those who cannot afford not for those who can.

Next comes steel - thats the next target. When their cost of inputs and prices are determined by global factors a ban on increasing prices might b the dynamics of the industry. They would be operating at a loss (as cost of inputs are signifcantly risen in the global market while prices are being asked to cap here).

These steps will only discourage industry to put up fresh investments in the longer term and hurt employment opportunities and development in long term. The only objective of the Government at the end of all this is to create noise in the public domain that steps are being taken. yes steps are being taken but in the wrong areas - result impact being seen in inflation. Despite all these freezes inflation is still on the rise !!!

This takes the cake however! Waiver on farm loans - phew. Though this seems greatly benevolent it is a repetitive case and only inculcates bad habits among borrowers. Result even the biggest of the public sector banks has said it will stop loans for tractors in the country. Thats proof enough of the point being made. If you tell someone hey every five years i will write off your loans you just keep borrowing then one only encourages a farmer to borrow (just because he is a farmer) and use for other purposes. Because he very well knows he does not need to repay. I would have been happier if there were reduction in interest rates or some such step but waiver on loans thats bad economics.

Coming up - Swanky new airports, My favourite state in India

Thursday, May 22, 2008

reminiscences of a stock operator

Well its as usual been pretty long since i came up with my last post. What prompted me to write this one - my dear friend sehgoo writing his new blog reminded me that i too have one and maybe writing it once in a while does make sense.....

Well as usual my pet topic is markets and i thought of writing about the recent book on the same - Reminiscences of a stock operator. Well its an awesome quick read for guys who follow markets! Wonderful and amazed at how Lawrence Livingston did his studies in early 1900s. Wow man hats off to him. Today we got so many tools and we still are not able to analyse anything worthwhile maybe losing oneself in the details rather than the big picture seems to be the case here too.

His logic to trade based on experience is one thing i can really relate to as i have seen my dad pickup some great stocks (which to my so called educated mind seem bad) in the last three years. Also its great to try and understand the psychology and sentiments of the crowd in the market. Also i loved the larry explained in the book 'the tape is never wrong'. We got to read properly. And in most cases we fail to outperform the market in the long term. We may do so in certain stocks but the investment basket never outperforms the market. So very true (atleast in my case).

Other books i am reading half way thru - 'Snow' by Orhan Pamuk (i am going to kill Bala for leaving the book with Karthik at his sister vidya's engagement. Now all are in Bangalore and i am in Mumbai. Maybe i am to blame more as i forgot to take the book before leaving), 'Guns,Germs and Steel' by Jared Diamond. Both are pretty interesting reads.

In Guns, Germs and Steel, the one great and fresh idea (atleast for me) he said was that civilisations flourished easier when they spread latitudinally rather than longitudinally. Easy examples - Nile, Yellow and Indus valley civilisations (i forgot the fourth big civilisation of the past. think its persian). Recent examples are USA and Europe. Thats why civilisations were tough to spread from North India into South India and vice versa. Similar case with Africa, South America. The relation is simple if one applied common sense (which is so uncommon) - the climatic conditions are largely similar along the latitudes and highly dissimilar along longitudes. Wow Eureka for me!

Thats it from my side for now. Hope to write soon and hope to fill more on the many movies i see.....